Working paper/research report

Authors list: Rudel, Paul; Tillmann, Peter

Publication year: 2024

URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/301240

Title of series: MAGKS Joint discussion paper series in economics

Number in series: 2024, 13

Abstract: 

Monetary policy increasingly relies on steering market expectations about future policy. This paper identifies a monetary policy news shock based on a VAR model. A monetary news shock is equivalent to new information about the Fed's future monetary policy becoming available today. One example of a monetary news shock is a forward guidance announcement, where the Fed unveils its prospectively (binding) monetary policy, today. In this paper, we study the spillover effects of news shocks. We estimate the response of the euro area to an expected future policy tightening of the Fed. The U.S. news shock improves sentiment and business cycle expectations in the euro area, which is consistent with the notion of the Fed revealing favorable news by a tightening announcement. We also distinguish the news shock from a conventional U.S. policy surprise and find that they lead to diverging responses in the euro area.

Harvard Citation style: Rudel, P. and Tillmann, P. (2024) News shock spillovers: How the euro area responds to expected fed policy. (MAGKS Joint discussion paper series in economics, 2024, 13). Marburg: Philipps-University Marburg. https://hdl.handle.net/10419/301240

APA Citation style: Rudel, P., & Tillmann, P. (2024). News shock spillovers: How the euro area responds to expected fed policy. (MAGKS Joint discussion paper series in economics, 2024, 13). Philipps-University Marburg. https://hdl.handle.net/10419/301240