Simulation-based Projections of Crop Management and Gross Margin Variance in Contrasting Regions of Southwest Germany - Research portal of Justus Liebig University Giessen:

Journal article

Simulation-based Projections of Crop Management and Gross Margin Variance in Contrasting Regions of Southwest Germany

Authors list: Parker, PS; Reinmuth, E; Ingwersen, J; Högy, P; Priesack, E; Wizemann, HD; Aurbacher, J

Publication year: 2015

Pages: 79-98

Journal: Journal of Agricultural Studies

Volume number: 3

Issue number: 1

DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.5296/jas.v3i1.5956

Publisher: Macrothink Institute

Abstract:

Crop simulation is a modern tool used to mimic ordinary and
extraordinary agriculture systems. Under the premise of continuing
foreseeable climatic shift we combine adaptive field-level management
decisions with their effects on crop performance. Price projections are
used to examine yield and price effects on gross margins of the
predominant crops in two specific regions of Southwest Germany into the
coming decades. After calibration and validation to historic records,
simulated future weather is used to explore how farmer behavior and
performance of wheat, barley, rapeseed and maize could develop under
anticipated global change. This development is examined based on a
comparison of historic and projected gross margin variance. Simulations
indicate that when yield levels increase, the relative variability of
gross margins may decline in spite of some increasing variability of
yields. The coefficient of variance of gross margins decreases even more
due to the independence of price and yield fluctuations. This shows how
the effects of global change on yields could be offset by economic
conditions.

Authors/Editors

- Uni.-Prof. Dr. Joachim Johannes Aurbacher

Citation Styles

Harvard Citation style: Parker, P., Reinmuth, E., Ingwersen, J., Högy, P., Priesack, E., Wizemann, H., et al. (2015) Simulation-based Projections of Crop Management and Gross Margin Variance in Contrasting Regions of Southwest Germany, Journal of Agricultural Studies, 3(1), pp. 79-98. https://doi.org/10.5296/jas.v3i1.5956

APA Citation style: Parker, P., Reinmuth, E., Ingwersen, J., Högy, P., Priesack, E., Wizemann, H., & Aurbacher, J. (2015). Simulation-based Projections of Crop Management and Gross Margin Variance in Contrasting Regions of Southwest Germany. Journal of Agricultural Studies. 3(1), 79-98. https://doi.org/10.5296/jas.v3i1.5956