Journal article

Authors list: Dörr, JO; Kinne, J; Lenz, D; Licht, G; Winker, P

Publication year: 2022

Journal: PLoS ONE

Volume number: 17

Issue number: 2

ISSN: 1932-6203

Open access status: Gold

DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263898

Publisher: Public Library of Science

Abstract: 
Usually, official and survey-based statistics guide policymakers in their choice of response instruments to economic crises. However, in an early phase, after a sudden and unforeseen shock has caused unexpected and fast-changing dynamics, data from traditional statistics are only available with non-negligible time delays. This leaves policymakers uncertain about how to most effectively manage their economic countermeasures to support businesses, especially when they need to respond quickly, as in the COVID-19 pandemic. Given this information deficit, we propose a framework that guided policymakers throughout all stages of this unforeseen economic shock by providing timely and reliable sources of firm-level data as a basis to make informed policy decisions. We do so by combining early stage 'ad hoc' web analyses, 'follow-up' business surveys, and 'retrospective' analyses of firm outcomes. A particular focus of our framework is on assessing the early effects of the pandemic, using highly dynamic and large-scale data from corporate websites. Most notably, we show that textual references to the coronavirus pandemic published on a large sample of company websites and state-of-the-art text analysis methods allowed to capture the heterogeneity of the pandemic's effects at a very early stage and entailed a leading indication on later movements in firm credit ratings. While the proposed framework is specific to the COVID-19 pandemic, the integration of results obtained from real-time online sources in the design of subsequent surveys and their value in forecasting firm-level outcomes typically targeted by policy measures, is a first step towards a more timely and holistic approach for policy guidance in times of economic shocks.

Harvard Citation style: Dörr, J., Kinne, J., Lenz, D., Licht, G. and Winker, P. (2022) An integrated data framework for policy guidance during the coronavirus pandemic: Towards real-time decision support for economic policymakers, PLoS ONE, 17(2), Article e0263898. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263898

APA Citation style: Dörr, J., Kinne, J., Lenz, D., Licht, G., & Winker, P. (2022). An integrated data framework for policy guidance during the coronavirus pandemic: Towards real-time decision support for economic policymakers. PLoS ONE. 17(2), Article e0263898. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263898